On Tuesday BHI released a new study on the impacts that Question 1 would have on state residents. The majority of the current research on the effects of the elimination of the state personal income tax looks at an all or nothing case, with both sides arguing that the others vote would lead to lower economic outcomes.
The real world, especially politics, rarely operate with black or white but more often gray areas. Using this rational we examined cases where the Commonwealth could cut line-item spending to that of comparable states, thereby supplying the same amount of services of states such as New Hampshire, Colorado and Texas and increasing other taxes. This template could be used by the legislature to get though the income tax elimination, should voters support the ballot measure, and expand the economy.
The cuts in service to comparable states levels accounted for 70% of the lost income tax revenue. The remaining 30% is made up thought cost cuts (amending the state Prevailing Wage Law) and higher sales and property taxes.
These adjustments would enable the economy of Massachusetts to grow by 80k jobs and increase disposable income per household by $1,461.